The Ringer's NBA Playoff and Lottery Odds Machine

The Ringer’s NBA Playoff and Lottery Odds Machine

Welcome to The RingerNBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of making the playoffs and winning the title. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming weeks as the league’s best teams battle for a title.

Today’s Games

Home Team Winning Odds Road Team Winning Odds Expected Margin
Home Team Winning Odds Road Team Winning Odds Expected Margin
Raptors 44% 76ers 56% 76ers by 2
Pelican 45% Suns 55% Suns by 1.5
Jazz 58% Mavericks 42% Jazz by 2.5

Right now, the Raptors are favored to win their series 15% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 33%. But if they lose today, the series will be over.

Right now, the Pelicans are favored to win their series 15% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 35%. But if they lose today, the series will be over.

Right now, the Jazz are favored to win their series 27% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 48%. But if they lose today, the series will be over.

We’re simulating the postseason every day. This chart shows each team’s likelihood of advancing in each round and winning the 2021-22 title.

Postseason Odds

Team Make Second Round Make Third Round Make Finals Win Title
Team Make Second Round Make Third Round Make Finals Win Title
Celtics 100% 75% 51% 29%
Warriors 100% 54% 31% 17%
Suns 85% 53% 28% 16%
Heat 100% 70% 29% 13%
Grizzlies 85% 42% 22% 11%
Bucks 100% 25% 12% 5%
Mavericks 73% 30% 12% 4%
76ers 85% 26% 7% 2%
Jazz 27% 13% 5% 2%
Timberwolves 15% 4% 1% <1%
Raptors 15% 3% 1% <1%
Pelican 15% 4% <1% <1%

How likely is your favorite team to win in a sweep? What about losing in five, or winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in every series.

First Round

76ers vs Raptors

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
76ers in 4 n/a
76ers in 5 n/a
76ers in 6 55%
76ers in 7 30%
Raptors in 4 n/a
Raptors in 5 n/a
Raptors in 6 n/a
Raptors in 7 15%

Suns vs. Suns Pelican

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Sunshine in 4 n/a
Sunshine in 5 n/a
Sunshine in 6 56%
Sunshine in 7 29%
Pelicans in 4 n/a
Pelican in 5 n/a
Pelicans in 6 n/a
Pelicans in 7 15%


Grizzlies vs. Grizzlies Timberwolves

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Grizzlies in 4 n/a
Grizzlies in 5 n/a
Grizzlies in 6 56%
Grizzlies in 7 29%
Timberwolves in 4 n/a
Timberwolves in 5 n/a
Timberwolves in 6 n/a
Timberwolves in 7 15%


Mavericks vs. Mavericks Jazz

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Mavericks in 4 n/a
Mavericks in 5 n/a
Mavericks in 6 42%
Mavericks in 7 30%
Jazz in 4 n/a
Jazz in 5 n/a
Jazz in 6 n/a
Jazz in 7 27%

Second Round

Celtics vs. Celtics Bucks

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Celtics in 4 15%
Celtics in 5 25%
Celtics in 6 19%
Celtics in 7 17%
Bucks in 4 2%
Bucks in 5 4%
Bucks in 6 9%
Bucks in 7 10%

The 2022 NBA draft will likely feature a slew of skilled big men at the top, with Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr., and Chet Holmgren projecting as potential franchise cornerstones. Accounting for the final standings, lottery odds, and pick trades, what are your favorite team’s chances of landing no. 1, or a top-four selection?

Lottery Odds

Team No 1 Pick Top-4 Pick
Team No 1 Pick Top-4 Pick
Rockets 14.0% 52%
Magic 14.0% 52%
Pistons 14.0% 52%
Thunder 14.0% 52%
Pacers 10.5% 42%
Trail Blazers 9.0% 37%
Kings 7.5% 32%
Pelican 6.0% 26%
Spurs 4.5% 20%
Wizards 3.0% 14%
Knicks 2.0% 9%
Hornets 1.0% 5%
Cavaliers 0.5% 2%

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