Welcome to The RingerNBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of making the playoffs and winning the title. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming weeks as the league’s best teams battle for a title.
Today’s Games
| Home Team | Winning Odds | Road Team | Winning Odds | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Team | Winning Odds | Road Team | Winning Odds | Expected Margin |
| Raptors | 44% | 76ers | 56% | 76ers by 2 |
| Pelican | 45% | Suns | 55% | Suns by 1.5 |
| Jazz | 58% | Mavericks | 42% | Jazz by 2.5 |
Right now, the Raptors are favored to win their series 15% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 33%. But if they lose today, the series will be over.
Right now, the Pelicans are favored to win their series 15% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 35%. But if they lose today, the series will be over.
Right now, the Jazz are favored to win their series 27% of the time. If they win today, those odds will jump to about 48%. But if they lose today, the series will be over.
We’re simulating the postseason every day. This chart shows each team’s likelihood of advancing in each round and winning the 2021-22 title.
Postseason Odds
| Team | Make Second Round | Make Third Round | Make Finals | Win Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Make Second Round | Make Third Round | Make Finals | Win Title |
| Celtics | 100% | 75% | 51% | 29% |
| Warriors | 100% | 54% | 31% | 17% |
| Suns | 85% | 53% | 28% | 16% |
| Heat | 100% | 70% | 29% | 13% |
| Grizzlies | 85% | 42% | 22% | 11% |
| Bucks | 100% | 25% | 12% | 5% |
| Mavericks | 73% | 30% | 12% | 4% |
| 76ers | 85% | 26% | 7% | 2% |
| Jazz | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
| Timberwolves | 15% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| Raptors | 15% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Pelican | 15% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
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How likely is your favorite team to win in a sweep? What about losing in five, or winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in every series.
First Round
76ers vs Raptors
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| 76ers in 4 | n/a |
| 76ers in 5 | n/a |
| 76ers in 6 | 55% |
| 76ers in 7 | 30% |
| Raptors in 4 | n/a |
| Raptors in 5 | n/a |
| Raptors in 6 | n/a |
| Raptors in 7 | 15% |
Suns vs. Suns Pelican
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| Sunshine in 4 | n/a |
| Sunshine in 5 | n/a |
| Sunshine in 6 | 56% |
| Sunshine in 7 | 29% |
| Pelicans in 4 | n/a |
| Pelican in 5 | n/a |
| Pelicans in 6 | n/a |
| Pelicans in 7 | 15% |
Grizzlies vs. Grizzlies Timberwolves
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| Grizzlies in 4 | n/a |
| Grizzlies in 5 | n/a |
| Grizzlies in 6 | 56% |
| Grizzlies in 7 | 29% |
| Timberwolves in 4 | n/a |
| Timberwolves in 5 | n/a |
| Timberwolves in 6 | n/a |
| Timberwolves in 7 | 15% |
Mavericks vs. Mavericks Jazz
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| Mavericks in 4 | n/a |
| Mavericks in 5 | n/a |
| Mavericks in 6 | 42% |
| Mavericks in 7 | 30% |
| Jazz in 4 | n/a |
| Jazz in 5 | n/a |
| Jazz in 6 | n/a |
| Jazz in 7 | 27% |
Second Round
Celtics vs. Celtics Bucks
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| Celtics in 4 | 15% |
| Celtics in 5 | 25% |
| Celtics in 6 | 19% |
| Celtics in 7 | 17% |
| Bucks in 4 | 2% |
| Bucks in 5 | 4% |
| Bucks in 6 | 9% |
| Bucks in 7 | 10% |
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The 2022 NBA draft will likely feature a slew of skilled big men at the top, with Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith Jr., and Chet Holmgren projecting as potential franchise cornerstones. Accounting for the final standings, lottery odds, and pick trades, what are your favorite team’s chances of landing no. 1, or a top-four selection?
Lottery Odds
| Team | No 1 Pick | Top-4 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No 1 Pick | Top-4 Pick |
| Rockets | 14.0% | 52% |
| Magic | 14.0% | 52% |
| Pistons | 14.0% | 52% |
| Thunder | 14.0% | 52% |
| Pacers | 10.5% | 42% |
| Trail Blazers | 9.0% | 37% |
| Kings | 7.5% | 32% |
| Pelican | 6.0% | 26% |
| Spurs | 4.5% | 20% |
| Wizards | 3.0% | 14% |
| Knicks | 2.0% | 9% |
| Hornets | 1.0% | 5% |
| Cavaliers | 0.5% | 2% |